CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2025-02-14T21:48:00-CME-001)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Solar Orbiter, Europa Clipper, Mars, Lucy, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-15T20:33:19Z
## Message ID: 20250215-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Update on CME with ID 2025-02-14T21:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250215-AL-001), now simulated with CME with ID 2025-02-15T01:36:00-CME-001. Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the the CMEs may affect Solar Orbiter, Europa Clipper (minor impact), Mars (minor impact), and Lucy (glancing blow).  The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-02-16T19:51Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-02-19T06:00Z and Mars at 2025-02-19T11:00Z, and the combined flank may reach Lucy at 2025-02-18T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the combined front of the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-02-17T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
   
CME parameters are:

1: Start time of the event: 2025-02-14T21:48Z (parameters have not been updated)

Estimated speed: ~507 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 17 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -33/4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2025-02-14T21:48:00-CME-001


2: Start time of the event: 2025-02-15T01:36Z.

Estimated speed: ~722 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -31/10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2025-02-15T01:36:00-CME-001


Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-02-14T21:48:00-CME-001, 2025-02-15T01:36:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250215_041300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250215_041300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250215_041300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250215_041300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250215_041300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250215_041300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250215_041300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

## Notes: 

The CME with ID 2025-02-15T01:36:00-CME-001 is associated with C1.9 flare with ID 2025-02-15T00:50:00-FLR-001 from an unnumbered region (N11E31) which peaked at 2025-02-15T01:06Z.


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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